Korpisalo, undisciplined Oilers have LA Kings halfway to Round 2

After a split in Edmonton, the LA Kings won Game 3 in Los Angeles in overtime on Friday. With the help of Joonas Korpisalo and an Edmonton Oilers team that can’t get out of their own way, the Kings find themselves in control of Round 1 and just two wins away from advancing in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The first period of Game 3 was probably the best period of the series for the Kings; they held a 1-0 lead on a goal by Alex Iafallo and controlled much of the play at 5-on-5 for the first time this series. What happened the rest of the game was really a microcosm of the series to date: great goaltending from Joonas Korpisalo and an incredible lack of discipline from Edmonton.

Joonas Korpisalo

Let’s start with Korpisalo. The tricky part when heaping as much praise as is deserved for Korpisalo is that it actually means the team in front of him really isn’t playing that well. And if Kings fans are being honest, they’re not.

Here’s how the two teams have matched up at 5-on-5 this series so far (per Natural Stat Trick):

Let’s not kid ourselves, Edmonton has completely controlled this series, and despite also outshooting the Kings 98-63, the teams have scored the same amount of goals (4) at 5-on-5 this series.

The 43 high-danger chances the Kings have given up at 5-on-5 these playoffs are more than any other team in the NHL. Korpisalo has faced a playoff-high 30 high-danger shots on goal. According to MoneyPuck, Korpisalo’s 3.4 goals saved above expected are second only to Igor Shesterkin in the playoffs.

Almost no matter how you slice it, the Kings are having a hard time keeping Edmonton out of their zone, and while there’s a case to be made that LA has limited some of the Oilers’ chances, they’re still getting plenty of good looks.

And that was just at 5-on-5. In all situations, no one has allowed more shots on goal, scoring chances, high-danger chances, and expected goals than the LA Kings. And only one team (Minnesota) has allowed more shot attempts. It isn’t just the saves the goaltender has to make, but when the play is constantly in his zone, there is physical movement, tracking the play visually and reacting to every shot – even if it doesn’t hit the net. So Korpisalo’s workload has been heavy.

An unrestricted free agent this summer, Korpisalo’s stock is indeed rising with his play this series.

Is any of this sustainable? Of course not. Not over the course of a regular season and not throughout an extended playoff run. The Kings will not win a Stanley Cup playing like this. However, it can “work” in a short series. The “better” team doesn’t always win in a best-of-seven series. This wouldn’t be the first time that a goalie steals a series.

The good news for LA is that if they are able to find their way past Edmonton, they aren’t likely to be in a series where they are hemmed into their own zone like this. The Kings are one of the better possession and shot-suppression teams in the NHL, Edmonton just happens to be the worst matchup in the Western Confrerence, and they’re getting them in the first round.

What are the Oilers doing?

Also working for the Kings during this series is the sheer stupidity of the Edmonton Oilers. When you consider the statistics above, there is no reason for the Oilers not to be winning this series, and perhaps even winning the series 3-0. And while Korpisalo has stood on his head, the Oilers have shot themselves in the foot.

When we look back at Game 1, Edmonton had a 2-0 lead after the first period and was in complete control. They proceeded to take four straight penalties from the end of the first through the final minute of the second period. While LA did not score on any of those chances, that was eight minutes that they couldn’t play 5-on-5 and allowed the Kings to at least play with the puck more so than they had been.

Late in the third period of that game, after the Kings had trimmed their deficit to one, Evan Bouchard took a high-sticking penalty after cross-checking Trevor Moore in the face, giving the Kings a power play. LA would convert on the 6-on-4.