NFL Draft: Keep an eye on picks for McCarthy and Nix

Yes, we're deep into the first-round action in the NBA and NHL, but how about a step back to look at tonight's NFL Draft? If you're not familiar, there are a lot of betting markets open in the draft. Odds move like crazy off one tweet, but we have cashed on this night before and have a few plus-money QB looks worth a wager tonight.

QBs set to be all over Round One of tonight's NFL Draft

J.J. McCarthy draft position over 5.5 (+135 FanDuel)

The more we hear about the draft from experts, the more it seems that the top of this draft is going to be quite chalky. When we say chalk, we mean: 

1. Caleb Williams, QB
2. Jayden Daniels, QB
3. Drake Maye, QB
4. Marvin Harrison, WR
5. JC Latham/Joe Alt, OT

Michigan's J.J. McCarthy's over/under placement here at 5.5 is deliberate: the Chargers at No. 5 is the inflection point. Los Angeles wants to move down, and they also need another offensive lineman. NFL Draft expert Daniel Jeremiah recently said that the Vikings, who are the team most often rumored to be moving up, would only do so if Drake Maye somehow falls to five.

Otherwise, they may sit tight at No. 11 and see if J.J. McCarthy makes it to them.

In such a scenario, the Chargers would be forced to stick and pick, most likely a tackle like Latham or Alt, and then the McCarthy slide begins.

Consider us still not convinced on McCarthy, and we're fading the hype tonight.

Bo Nix to be a first-round pick (+125 FanDuel)

It seems incredibly likely that six QBs are going to go in the first round, for better or worse, and one of them is Oregon's Bo Nix. Denver and Sean Payton have reportedly grown enamored with Nix, who has received some comps to Drew Brees. That would explain Payton's infatuation, and the Broncos most certainly need a QB.

Even if it isn't Denver, other teams like the Los Angeles Rams have also been rumored to be interested in taking a QB. Most notable analysts have resigned themselves to projecting Nix into the top 32 tonight, even if they have a second round grade on the guy.

We're hopping in on what feels like the inevitable, especially while it's at plus-money.

In the news ...

Heat take Game 2 over Celtics, Thunder go up 2-0 — Miami shot extremely well from deep on Wednesday night, and it was enough to steal a game in Boston. Tyler Herro led the way with 24 points and 14 assists in the Heat's 111-101 win. Books aren't convinced it matters much, the Celtics are still -1800 to win the series and -180 to win the East. Elsewhere, Oklahoma City pulled out to a 2-0 series lead over New Orleans and currently sit as Denver's stiffest competition out West, +450 to reach the finals.

Bruins go up 2-1; Vegas takes both road games vs. Dallas; Kings knot series with Oilers — Thanks to two goals from Brad Marchand, the Boston Bruins took Game 3 in Toronto over the Leafs 4-2, building a 2-1 series lead. We do still think Toronto can win this series, but the mysterious absence of William Nylander this series is extremely strange. The Maple Leafs are currently -112 to win on Saturday and +230 to come back and win the series. We saw a pair of exciting games out West, headlined by a 5-4 OT thriller between the Kings and Oilers, a Los Angeles win. These two teams have now played 15 playoff games in the past three years, and the over is 12-3. Just go ahead and bet over 6.5 tomorrow now. Defending Cup champs Vegas took both games on the road against Dallas, can the Stars come back? They're +350 to do so. We stubbornly think they still can pull it off.

Amon-Ra St. Brown becomes NFL's highest-paid receiver — Three years ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown slid to the fourth round of the NFL Draft, a fact that has stayed with him so much so that he continuously writes down the 16 WRs who went before him that weekend. Well, on the eve of the 2024 NFL Draft, St. Brown became the NFL's highest-paid receiver, inking a four-year, $120 million extension with the Detroit Lions. Detroit owns the 29th pick in tonight's draft, and cornerback (+135) and defensive line (+175) are the two favorites for the Lions newest rookie addition.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.